Bitcoin Could Rally By 2,400% From The Bottom
As Bitcoin has returned over the past few days, many have been left asking where the cryptocurrency market could top. It may be a bit too early to tell, but some are that optimistic. Level’s Josh Rager notes that over Bitcoin’s three completed cycles, the trough to peak gains decreased by around 80% each time, which is a concept defined by the law of diminishing returns. As Rager notes, 2011’s rally saw a return of 320,000%; 2014, 58,500%; and 2017, 12,000%. Thus, if history is followed to a tee, BTC will rally by 2,400% off its bottom, giving it a potential high of just shy of $80,000, $78,500.
Bitcoin Rate of Return Each Market Cycle(Each cycle had a 20% return of the previous cycle)2011: Return of 318,864% = $31.90 High2014: Return of 58,474% = $1,177.19 High2017: Return of 11,960% = $19,764.51 High2022: Potential Return of 2,392% = $78,500.00 Potential High pic.twitter.com/7KP439cpZE— Josh Rager 📈 (@Josh_Rager) May 14, 2019https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Higher Than $80,000?
Rager’s followers are under the belief that Bitcoin’s next top is going to be dramatically higher than $80,000. In a poll released prior to the tweet seen above, 43% of the 4,300 that responded expected highs of anywhere from $80,000 and beyond. Of course, this isn’t a majority, but it shows that there are many traders in this market that don’t expect for Bitcoin to follow historical trends of diminishing marginal returns to an exact tee.
Others have also speculated that the next peak in the cryptocurrency market will result in much higher prices for Bitcoin than $80,000. As Crypto Coins Reports reported previously, Galaxy, claims that Bitcoin’s current monthly chart looks eerily similar to that seen in late-2015, when BTC finally began to embark on a rally yet again.
This is notable, as the last time BTC’s chart structure looked as it did now (a massive green candle after ~one year of selling pressure), what followed was a 6,500% price surge in a two-year time frame. Thus, Galaxy notes that if historical precedent is followed to a tee, a bull run of the previous one’s magnitude will place BTC at over $333,000 per unit by the end of 2021.
Observing structure similarities between the monthly candles of October 2015 and April 2019.October 2015 marked the start of most significant bull run in BTC history after a 6500% price surge in 2 years.Another similar bull run puts BTC at over $330K/coin, by the end of 2021. pic.twitter.com/KTCRLd8jRH— Galaxy (@galaxyBTC) May 1, 2019https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Funnily enough, he isn’t the notable analyst to have thought this. As reported by Crypto Coins Reports in early-March, crypto personality $carface notes that if BTC continues to follow its multi-year trends of boom and bust, the asset could appreciate to $102,000 to $336,000 if it follows historical trends of rallying 5.1 to 16.89 times higher than its previous peak. Naeem Aslam, a crypto-friendly analyst at Think Markets, echoed this analysis, explaining that per his “simple maths calculation,” the leading digital asset trading at a hefty $400,000 isn’t a “fool’s paradise.”
And on the fundamental side, there are clear reasons why the cryptocurrency market could see another crazy move. As Filb Filb, a popular trader and researcher, explained in an extensive Twitter thread posted near December’s bottom, if BTC’s supply is issued on schedule, if crypto adoption follows that of the Internet’s, and if debt continues to increase, Bitcoin could easily see six figures by 2021, not decades down the line.
Moreover, some are sure that in the next couple of years and decades, Bitcoin will begin to absorb some of gold’s market capitalization, which sits at $8 trillion. An $8 trillion dollar Bitcoin, as Mark Yusko, speculates will give each coin the value of ~$500,000.
Title Image Courtesy of Marco Verch
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